For a real estate investor to make any fiscally astute investment decisions, it is critical for him take measure of the future economic outlook where he chooses to invest. What will come in future bring? What will the cost of money be tomorrow? Which cities and neighborhoods where we put our money will most economically robust? Can we assume future housing appreciation?
Last month I had the pleasure of listening to a pair of widely respected economists- Anil Puri, Dean of the College of Business and Economics at California State Fullerton and David Lereah, Chief Economist Of the National Association of Realtors- give their view on the future economy of the United States.
Let me summarize:
· The economy will grow. The expansion rate (Gross Domestic Product) of 3.0% to 4.1% that the US Economy has been enjoying will continue at the 3.3% to 3.4% level through 2009. National economic fundamentals are sound but inflationary pressures, rising oil prices, tax reform, and potential job losses could be risks on the horizon.
· We will pay more. Both economists predicted inflationary times ahead. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) last week rose an annualized 4.8% nationally and 5.7% for California. The end of year rate will end up closer to 3.5% and probably 1 point higher for California.
· We will make more. In 2006-2007 an average of 6.2% rise in personal incomes is predicted. Rising incomes employers pay to attract better workers will make housing in economically dynamic cities more affordable.
· There will be more of us. By 2050, America's 290 million population will be 420 million strong. Nevada's population will grow two fold by 2023; Florida's population will double by the year 2040. California will add the most residents, but the greatest percentage increase will be in Texas, Florida, Nevada and Arizona
· We will build more. Ninety million new housing units by 2050 are needed to replace older housing stock, to house new households and to satisfy the demand for the burgeoning 2nd home market.
· We will have immigrants. Miami, Los Angeles and New York will continue to attract the large families 1st generation immigrants traditionally provide. We will need their vitality and work ethic.
· We will age. Twenty five years ago, only 25 million Americans were above the age of 65. That number will almost triple to 70.3 million by 2030.
· We will pay higher interest rates for all loans. Besides credit card companies finding ways to charge higher rates, the Federal Reserve has raised short term rate 12 straight times since June 2004. Prime interest rates on most Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCS) have risen from 4% to 7% during that time. The Prime Rate is expected to be at 8% by the end of 2006. Both economists forecast long term fixed rates to be about 6.5% to 7% by the end of next year.
Those of you that now have loans with long term fixed rates will benefit in a higher rate world. Call me if you want to avoid the risk of higher interest rates.
Would you like to know why I think we won't recognize the place 10 years from now? E-mail me if you would also like to know where Dr. Lereah, National Association of Realtors economist, saw the young, energetic high-tech swing cities growing the most.

post courtesy of Steve Dexter
949-494-1676

To follow up on a recent post regarding the new roundabouts installed on La Jolla Blvd near the SeaHaus project, I have to say the flow of traffic seems to be adjusting well now. I haven't seen any near fatal accidents due to seemingly unnatural right of way. Looks like Mr. Burden had it right. Birdrock should come out of the recent redevelopment a more walkable, cohesive community. Its potential for a cozy, European seaside village feel will be realized. That is a great thing for La Jolla. Let's just hope the lineup at Birdrock doesn't feel the impact of more visitors!

Another north swell seems to headed towards San Diego beaches in time for the weekend. Coming in between 293 and 289 degrees, most north facing beaches should show waves in the 3-5 foot range Friday and Saturday, tapering off on Sunday. Water temperatures have been dropping slowly but consistently, leaving most San Diego beaches in the low 60's. Definitely a full suit.

Surf Report

from surfingsandiego.com

The La Jolla Beach and Tennis Club, in an attempt to become the site of a first round Davis Cup match between the United States and Romania has submitted “a very competitive bid” according to Club president William J Kellog .
The La Jolla Club has never hosted the event, and would construct a hardcourt with seating for 4,500 on its pitch and putt golf course to accommodate fans.
The United States was not assured of participation in 2006 until a recent 4-1 victory over Belgium.

San Diego Union Tribune

NFL 101

NFL 101 with the Chargers is back. Learn the basics of the game in at this fun, interactive event. Have dinner on Jack Murphy field along with a Gallo wine tasting. Appearances will be made by Chargers coaches and players to give offensive and defensive tutorials and instruct in interactive running and throwing drils. A Q&A will follow class. Registration is at 5:30, dinner at 6:00 and the program at 7:00 on November 8th.

NFL 101 with the San Diego Chargers

Events

San Diego/ Tijuana based architect and artist Teddy Cruz explores the deep division between northern and southern cultures in the Americas in the exhibition “Border Postcards”. Cruz and the Tijuana Workshop present a series of photo-constructions providing insight into “architectures of contingency and urbanisms of transgression that define this border territory”. Cruz’s work has been previously seen at the Athenaeum in 1994 with “This is not a House: Four Projects by San Diego Architects”.

Teddy Cruz: Border Postcards
November 19 – December 31 2005

La Jolla Athenaeum

Mission Bay Golf Course is located just off the Grand and Garnet exit in Pacific Beach (just South of La Jolla). If you ever find yourself with 2 1/2 hours, a pitching wedge and a putter, about twenty dollars and a hankering to get 18 in- this is the spot for you. Not exactly a challenging course, but then again sometimes that is just what you need to get the confidence back, especially after playing the Oceans Course at Bajamar. It is a municipal course, so with that take the good and the bad (generally not as well maintained, without the amenities- but you get what you pay for, which is the good thing about muni's). Very short and accordingly plays very fast. A great place to play if you're going with your hacker buddy, 5 year old nephew, or me.

San Diego Coastal Golf Courses

For anyone who missed it, a very fun 70's top forty cover band, Phenomenon, played at the Hard Rock Cafe in the Village in La Jolla on Saturday night. Excellent musicianship, fun tunes that you can't but get up and dance to. The odd thing about Phenomenon is, with most band members being on the mature side, the show stealer is the young twenty-something lead guitar player, Alex Ciullo. He will definitely put on a show, running and jumping around on the stage all the while playing a mean guitar.
So if you are ever in the mood to hear a some old ACDC or Led Zeppelin- Phenomenon will bring you back.

La Jolla Village